August CPI: Where We Missed, What We Learned

We aim for accuracy and believe in intellectual honesty—so we’re upfront about both our wins and our lessons. Our August forecast was +0.27% MoM and +2.8% YoY, but CPI printed higher: +0.4% MoM and +2.9% YoY, driven by a stubborn jump in shelter costs.

Our recent track record:

• March-May: Three consecutive months of perfect calls, nailing the official results while consensus was off.

• June: One humbling miss as unforeseen geopolitical events skewed energy and core data after our model had locked.

• July: Right back on track—spot-on versus both consensus and final CPI numbers.

• August: A lesson in shelter volatility. Model adjustments already underway.

Forecasting isn’t about perfection—it’s about improving with every release. Out of six key months this year, we’ve matched the official BLS numbers in four, led consensus calls, and always published forecasts weeks before the release.

At Exponential we're always looking to improve our models by finding better data. We're not satisfied with four correct calls in six months. We want to give you an early and accurate forecast each month, because that's what you deserve.

Exponential leverages alternative data and machine learning to deliver accurate, early macroeconomic forecasts. Subscribers receive CPI projections weeks ahead of the official release, plus real-time updates.

For access, email sales@exponential-tech.ai.

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