- wyatt8240
- Nov 20
- 9 min read
Updated: Nov 21
When a $187M Warning Meets a $35B Earnings Beat
November 19, 2024: Nvidia reports $35.1 billion in revenue, up 94% year-over-year. Q4 guidance crushes at $37.5 billion. "Blackwell sales are off the charts," CEO Jensen Huang declares to analysts. The stock surges 5% after hours.
Next day's move: +0.53%.
This muted reaction has a backstory—one that began just weeks earlier in October 2025.
Early November 2025: Michael Burry—the man who predicted the 2008 crash, immortalized in "The Big Short"—disclosed $187 million in Nvidia put options in his Q3 2025 13F filing (positions held as of September 30, 2025, filed November 3-4, 2025). His cryptic warning to 1.3 million X followers: "Sometimes the only winning move is not to play." The disclosure sent shockwaves through markets.
Just weeks later, despite crushing earnings, Nvidia could barely budge.
Two events. Two opposite signals. One $4.5 trillion company at the center of the AI revolution.
The real question: Who was buying during the Burry panic—and who was selling into the earnings beat?
Don't Trade on Fear. Don't Trade on Headlines. Trade on Flows.
The Burry Effect Meets AI Euphoria
In early November 2025, Michael Burry disclosed put options betting against both Palantir and Nvidia—$187 million against Nvidia, $912 million against Palantir—via his Q3 2025 13F filing (positions held as of September 30, 2025, with the actual trades executed in October 2025 according to Burry's own clarification on X).
We documented Palantir's flow pattern shortly after, showing how institutions positioned ahead of its earnings, then distributed to retail at the peak, triggering an 8% drop.
But Nvidia's story, playing out in the immediate weeks following this disclosure through November 2025, reveals a different—and more revealing—pattern.
Palantir CEO Alex Karp publicly mocked Burry on CNBC: "The idea that chips and ontology are shortable is utterly insane." Jensen Huang simply delivered results. Yet both stocks faced the same challenge: when you're priced for AI perfection, even beating expectations can trigger distribution.
Here's what made Nvidia's situation uniquely precarious going into late 2025:
At $212 per share on October 29 (its all-time high), Nvidia commanded 7% of the entire S&P 500's weight. A $5 trillion market cap made it briefly the world's most valuable company. The stock had rallied 195% year-to-date.
Then came Burry's disclosure in early November.
When Burry disclosed his massive put position in early November 2025 (via his Q3 13F filing covering positions as of September 30, 2025), it wasn't just another hedge fund trade. It was a cultural moment. The man who bet against the housing bubble—and won spectacularly—was now betting against the AI bubble, with options dated for 2027.
In the weeks that followed through mid-November 2025, that warning reverberated through markets.
Why Traditional Data Left You Exposed
By the time you read "Michael Burry Shorts Nvidia" in your news feed on November 4, 2025, institutional money had already begun repositioning. By the time you saw "Nvidia Crushes Earnings" on November 19, the smart money had found its exit.
This is the timing gap that costs retail investors billions:
Quarterly reports: 90 days old when published
13-F filings: Report positions from 45 days earlier (Burry's puts were held as of September 30, 2025, but filed November 3-4, 2025)
Earnings announcements: Price impact happens in after-hours, before most retail can trade
Financial media: Reporting after the move is already priced in
LSEG Equity Flow data, Powered by Exponential Technology, shows you what's happening minute by minute.
Not summaries. Not interpretations. Raw flow data segmented by investor type—institutional, retail, market makers—across all US equities and venues.
For Nvidia's October-November drama, the flow data told a story completely different from the headlines. And it gave advance warning at three critical inflection points.
What the Flow Data Revealed About Nvidia's Three Acts
Let's look at what actually happened from October 20 through November 19, 2024.
The daily flow charts tell a remarkably clear—and troubling—story (see below):
Pattern: Peak Euphoria → Burry Panic → Distribution Into Earnings
The Retail Story (Top Chart)
Looking at the daily retail flow data from October 20 to November 19:
October 20-29: Steady positive flow building into the all-time high. Daily Z-Score spikes to +2.5 on October 29—retail buying pressure at statistically significant levels as the stock hits $212.
October 29 - November 3: Detrended Cumulative Flow peaks and holds elevated. Retail isn't selling the top—they're holding, convinced of higher prices ahead.
November 4-8 (The Disclosure Period): Retail flow stays positive. Not massive bars, but consistent buying. The Z-Score remains in positive territory. The fresh Burry disclosure is dismissed—retail provides liquidity.
November 10-19 (Pre-Earnings): Steady positive flow continues. No panic, no capitulation. Retail's conviction never wavers, even as the stock consolidates in the $180-190 range.
November 19 (Earnings Day): Retail flow remains constructive. They're positioned for the beat.
The Institutional Story (Bottom Chart)
Here's where it gets revealing. The institutional flow data tells a completely different story:
October 29: Massive positive institutional flow—the largest bar of the entire period. Daily Z-Score spikes to +3, confirming extreme statistical significance. Institutions bought the euphoria peak alongside retail, riding the momentum to $212.
November 3-8 (The Burry Disclosure Period): Institutional flow turns sharply negative. Dark orange bars replace the tan—this is selling, not buying. The Detrended Cumulative Flow begins its descent from the October 29 peak. Burry's disclosure gave institutions the cover they needed to exit.
November 10-19 (Pre-Earnings): Mixed flow, trending negative. Small positive days interrupted by selling. The Detrended Cumulative Flow continues declining, indicating institutions are systematically reducing exposure.
November 18-19 (Earnings Day): The Daily Flow Z-Score goes negative—below -1. On the day Nvidia delivers a massive beat, institutional flow is in distribution mode.
Click to expand the charts below.
What This Actually Means
Institutions rode the momentum to the October 2025 top, then found their exit as Burry's early November disclosure hit the market.
This is why NVDA gained only 0.53% despite a spectacular earnings beat:
✅ Peak euphoria (October 29, 2025): Both retail and institutions bought the all-time high ✅ Burry disclosure (November 4-8, 2025): Institutions exited, retail stayed committed ✅ Pre-earnings drift (November 10-19, 2025): Institutions continued distributing, retail kept buying ❌ Earnings beat (November 19, 2025): Institutions sold into the news, retail finally realized the trap
The flow data gave three separate warnings in October-November 2025:
October 29, 2025: When both retail AND institutional Z-scores spiked above +2.5 simultaneously at an all-time high—that's a selling signal, not a buying signal
November 4-8, 2025: When institutional flow turned negative while retail stayed positive—smart money was using Burry's fresh disclosure as cover for distribution
November 18-19, 2025: When institutional Z-score went negative on earnings day—they were selling the news before it even happened
The Three Critical Signals
Signal 1: Euphoric Top (October 29)
When both retail and institutions spike above +2.5 Z-score at an all-time high, it's climactic buying—a sell signal, not a continuation pattern.
The Detrended Cumulative Flow for both groups peaked here. This was maximum bullishness, maximum positioning. There were no new buyers left to push the stock higher.
Trade Signal: ✅ Take profits when euphoria is universal, not when sentiment turns
Signal 2: The Burry Cover-Up (November 4-8)
When institutional flow turns sharply negative while retail stays constructive, institutions are using headline fear as distribution cover.
Retail investors saw Burry's fresh disclosure as noise or even an opportunity to buy the dip. Institutions saw it as their chance to exit without moving the price against themselves. The divergence between retail's steady buying and institutional selling during this period was textbook distribution.
Trade Signal: ❌ When smart money exits during panic while retail "stays strong," the smart money is right
Signal 3: Distribution Into Earnings (November 18-19)
When institutional Z-score goes negative on earnings day before results are announced, they're selling the anticipated beat—not buying it.
This is the most damning signal. Institutions didn't wait to see if Nvidia would beat estimates. They already knew it would (everyone knew), and they knew the stock was fully priced for perfection. Negative institutional flow on earnings day means: "We're out, regardless of the numbers."
Trade Signal: ❌ Reduce or exit positions when institutions are distributing into a known positive catalyst
The beauty of these signals is their clarity. You didn't need complex analysis. The daily flow charts showed:
Peak euphoria on October 29 (sell signal)
Institutional exit during Burry panic (confirmation)
Distribution into earnings (final warning)
That's the entire story—and it gave you three separate chances to position correctly.
What Makes LSEG Equity Flow Data Different
Granularity
Minute-level intervals with 17 years of historical data. For this Nvidia pattern, the daily view was sufficient—peak euphoria October 29, institutional exit November 4-8, distribution into earnings November 19. Clear, simple, actionable.
But when you need deeper insight into intraday dynamics—like identifying the exact moment institutions turned sellers—the minute-level data is there.
Segmentation
Multiple high-frequency inference methods separate institutional from retail, market makers from informed traders. You know exactly who's moving into and out of a stock—and why it matters.
For Nvidia, this segmentation revealed what headlines couldn't: institutions and retail were trading in opposite directions during the critical weeks following Burry's disclosure through earnings.
Breadth
All US listed equities across all trading venues. No blind spots in coverage. Whether it's Nvidia at $4.5 trillion or a small-cap AI play, the flow data is comprehensive.
Real-Time Intelligence
See accumulation and distribution patterns as they develop—not after the price has already moved.
For Nvidia, real-time visibility would have shown:
October 29: Climactic buying at the top
November 4: Institutional selling begins
November 8: Distribution accelerates
November 18: Negative Z-score into earnings
Each of these was actionable in real-time, not in retrospect.
The Bigger Picture: When The Big Short Meets Big AI
The Nvidia-Burry confrontation perfectly encapsulates the current market tension:
The Bull Case (Wall Street Consensus):
AI infrastructure spending approaching $1 trillion
Nvidia's Blackwell platform "sold out"
Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) increasing capex
73% gross margins proving pricing power
AI revolution is just beginning
The Bear Case (Burry's Position):
Big Tech understating depreciation on GPU investments
Equipment becomes obsolete faster than balance sheets reflect
Valuation assumes zero competition and eternal dominance
When AI capex moderates, Nvidia's growth cliff will be severe
Trading at 44x forward earnings leaves no room for disappointment
The Flow Data's Verdict:
Both are partially right, and timing matters more than thesis.
Institutions believed the bull case enough to buy the October momentum. But they believed the bear case enough to exit when Burry's disclosure hit in early November and distribute into earnings. They took both sides of the trade—and profited from the round trip while retail held through the entire decline.
In this environment, being right about Nvidia's long-term AI dominance doesn't help if you bought the October top at $212 and held through November's distribution.
Real-time flow intelligence tells you:
When to ride institutional momentum (early October)
When institutions are finding their exit (Burry disclosure in early November)
When to take profits before the catalyst (pre-earnings distribution)
When to avoid the post-earnings trap (negative Z-score on November 19)
The Burry Question: Was He Right?
Here's what's fascinating: Burry's puts were dated for 2027.
His bet wasn't that Nvidia would collapse in November 2025. His bet is that by 2027, the AI bubble will have burst, GPU economics will have deteriorated, and competition will have emerged. He's betting on the cycle, not the quarter.
The specific expiration dates: Nvidia puts expire December 17, 2027 at a $110 strike price; Palantir puts expire January 15, 2027 at a $50 strike price.
But the flow data shows institutional money agreed with his thesis enough to exit in November 2025—two years early. They didn't need to wait for 2027 to see the risk. They saw a stock that had rallied to all-time highs with a legendary short-seller taking the other side, and they chose prudence over conviction.
That's the power of flow data: it tells you what smart money is doing, not what they're saying.
Wall Street analysts maintained "Strong Buy" ratings throughout November. 37 of 39 analysts covering Nvidia rate it a "Buy." But institutional flow told a different story.
Who was right—the analysts or the flows?
Nvidia at $212 on October 29, 2025: Peak institutional buyingNvidia at $187 on November 20, 2025 (post-earnings): 11.8% lower
The flows were right.
Two Ways Forward
Option 1:
Keep trading on headlines and analyst ratings. Buy when Nvidia beats earnings. Hold when Michael Burry discloses shorts. Trust that institutional conviction matches retail enthusiasm. Accept that your timing will match consensus—which means buying tops and selling bottoms.
Option 2:
Get visibility into what's actually happening in real-time. See climactic buying at $212 for what it is—a peak, not a plateau. Identify institutional distribution when Burry provides cover. Recognize negative Z-scores on earnings day as a warning, not a noise. Position proactively instead of reactively.
The Nvidia move wasn't unpredictable. The flow data showed exactly what was coming:
Climactic buying on October 29, 2025 (all-time high)
Institutional exit during November 4-8, 2025 (Burry disclosure period)
Distribution into November 19, 2025 (earnings beat)
Muted reaction next day (+0.53% despite massive beat)
You could have taken profits at $212 when Z-scores spiked above +2.5. You could have exited when institutional flow turned negative in early November. You could have avoided the earnings trap when institutional Z-score went negative on November 19, 2025.
The information was there. The question is: were you looking?
Stop Reacting. Start Anticipating.
Michael Burry will continue making contrarian bets. Jensen Huang will continue delivering record revenue. Analysts will continue issuing "Strong Buy" ratings. Retail will continue trusting the consensus.
But with real-time flow intelligence, you don't have to guess who's right.
You can see exactly what informed money is doing—and position accordingly.
Want to see how this works for your portfolio?
LSEG Equity Flow data, Powered by Exponential Technology, integrates institutional-grade flow analytics with AI-powered pattern recognition. We'll show you exactly what you're missing.
📧 Questions? Email: sales@exponential-tech.ai
📅 Book a Demo: See institutional flows in real-time
🔗 Read our previous analysis: How Flow Data Revealed Palantir's Distribution
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About LSEG Equity Flow Data
Based on the US Consolidated Feed, this dataset applies deep high-frequency trading knowledge to identify the direction of active risk-taking by institutional buy-side, market makers, and retail traders. With unprecedented 1-minute granularity and 17 years of history, it offers analysts the unique ability to distinguish institutional and retail flow—providing near-real-time market intelligence across the entire US equity market.
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