An empirical analysis of XTech’s real-time macro forecasting performance.

Study highlights

• More accurate than consensus: XTech forecasts outperform consensus CPI estimates by approximately 50%.

• Few economists beat consensus: Only about 17% of individual economists outperform the consensus benchmark.

• Stronger than top forecasters: XTech outperforms the top three economists by approximately 26%.

• Earlier signal: Forecasts begin roughly 20 days before official releases and are updated daily.

• Institutional-grade history: More than eight years of fully point-in-time forecast history delivered via API.

The table below (click to expand) summarizes the out-of-sample performance of headline CPI month-over-month forecasts across various accuracy metrics.

About XTech Macro Forecasts

• XTech Macro Forecasts deliver real-time, bottom-up forecasts for major U.S. macroeconomic indicators*, including CPI and key subcomponents.

• Forecasts are updated daily, released weeks ahead of official data, and materially ahead of consensus.

• Full point-in-time forecast history is available via API.

* Coverage: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, Employment Situation Report (Nonfarm Payrolls), ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Services PMI, US Retail Sales, Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Now that you've seen the accuracy of XTech's real-time CPI forecasts, discover how these signals perform in live market conditions.