- wyatt8240
- Nov 25
- 5 min read
If you had real-time flow data on November 23, 2025:
$180M of distribution over two weeks, yet price held stable
Both retail and institutional cumulative flows reverting to baseline
Alphabet catalyst approaching with sellers exhausted
Result: Position before November 24 open → capture +11.1% in a single day.
Instead: You might have watched Burry headlines, felt uncertain, stayed on the sidelines.
When Everyone Sells Before the Surge
November 4, 2025: Michael Burry disclosed $187M in Nvidia puts. Headlines screamed AI bubble. Both retail and institutions reduced exposure.
November 24, 2025: Broadcom surges 11.1%—its best day since April.
The contradiction: Both groups had distributed for two weeks before the surge. Yet when Alphabet's Gemini 3 catalyst arrived, the stock exploded anyway.
The lesson: When $180M of selling gets absorbed without price collapse, you're looking at exhausted sellers before a catalyst.
What Flow Data Revealed (While Everyone Else Watched Headlines)
What everyone saw: Burry bets against AI → reduce exposure
What flow data showed:
Nov 3-12: Combined $210M accumulation (retail $140M, institutions $70M)
Nov 12-24: Both groups distributed $180M combined
Critical: Price held $340-365 despite $180M selling
Nov 24: Cumulative flows at baseline = distribution complete
The setup: $180M of selling absorbed without price collapse + exhausted sellers + known catalyst approaching (Alphabet Gemini 3) = predictable surge.
Result: +11.1% in a single day for anyone watching the flows.
The Perfect Distraction
Michael Burry's $187M Nvidia puts and $912M Palantir puts dominated headlines. We documented Nvidia's outcome—distribution into earnings, then muted reaction.
Broadcom's unique setup:
Oct 13: OpenAI partnership ($350-500B deal, 10GW custom accelerators)
79.3% institutional ownership = deep liquidity
43 of 46 analysts "Buy" or "Strong Buy"
30x forward earnings vs Nvidia's 44x
Known catalyst: Alphabet Gemini 3 data approaching
At $1.5T market cap, Broadcom was liquid enough to trade but not crowded enough that distribution would crater it.
The pattern: Everyone knew the catalyst was coming. Everyone sold before it arrived. Supply exhausted. Then the catalyst hit.
Why Traditional Data Missed It
By the time you read "Burry Shorts Nvidia" on November 4, smart money was already repositioning. By the time Broadcom surged 11% on November 24, the setup was complete.
The timing gap:
Quarterly reports: 90 days old
13-F filings: 45+ days delayed
Analyst upgrades: Follow moves, don't predict them
Financial media: Yesterday's news
LSEG Equity Flow data, powered by Exponential Technology, shows you what's happening minute by minute.
What the Flow Data Revealed: The Anti-Nvidia Trade
Let's examine what actually happened from November 1 through November 24, 2025.
The daily flow charts (see below) tell a remarkably different story from Nvidia—and a far more profitable one:
Pattern: Early Retail Interest → Persistent Institutional Accumulation → Breakout
The Retail Story
Nov 3-5: Strong buying spike. Z-Score toward +2. Retail loads up on OpenAI partnership news (Oct 13). Price ~$370.
Nov 6-10: Flow moderates but stays positive. Detrended cumulative peaks around Nov 10.
Nov 10-24: Persistent distribution. Consistent negative bars. Z-scores moderately negative throughout. Detrended cumulative declines from peak to -554M by Nov 23.
Nov 24: Single positive bar (Z-Score -0.56). Cumulative recovers slightly to -530M. This isn't accumulation—retail is chasing an 11% surge already in progress.
Pattern: Early buying → three weeks of distribution → chasing the breakout.
The Institutional Story
Nov 3-10: Positive flow. Z-Score peaks at +1.33 on Nov 10 (moderate, not aggressive). Detrended cumulative peaks here.
Nov 10-17: Brief positive extension through Nov 17. Accumulation window shorter than it appears.
Nov 18-24: Pattern reverses. Negative flow throughout (dark orange bars). Z-scores -1.09 to -0.88. Detrended cumulative trends down. Institutions distributing into expected strength.
Nov 24: Surge happens despite institutions still selling. They were caught off-guard by timing.
Pattern: Early positioning → systematic profit-taking → forced to watch the +11% move.
The contrast:
Nvidia: Distribution into earnings → +0.53% (killed the rally)
Broadcom: Distribution before catalyst → +11.1% (overpowered the selling)
Why: Broadcom's catalyst (Gemini 3) was strong enough that forced repositioning overwhelmed existing sellers. The market was massively underweight relative to opportunity.
Click to expand the charts below:
The Intraday Evidence: $180M of Hidden Distribution
Minute-level granularity proves the magnitude:
Retail Intraday (5-Min Intervals)
Late Oct baseline: ~20M cumulative
Nov 3-5 surge: 20M → 160M (+$140M buying)
Nov 6-24: 160M → 20M (-$140M distribution)
Complete round-trip back to starting point
Institutional Intraday (Method 5)
Late Oct: -20 to -30M
Nov 3-12: -30M → +40M (+$70M swing)
Nov 12-24: +40M → 0M (-$40M distribution)
Back to neutral when breakout occurred
The $180M Setup
Combined distribution: Retail -$140M + Institutions -$40M = $180M of selling
Yet: Price held $340-365 throughout. No collapse.
Who absorbed it? Passive flows (index funds), systematic strategies (momentum algos), strategic buyers recognizing the opportunity.
The result: When $180M of natural selling gets absorbed without price collapse, you've exhausted sellers. Add a catalyst (Gemini 3) → +11.1%.
The timing: Both groups finished distributing by Nov 24 morning, exactly when the catalyst arrived. Not coincidence—market structure.
What This Means: Three Critical Signals
Signal 1: OpenAI Foundation (Oct 13) Partnership announced: 10GW custom accelerators, $350-500B deal. Strategic validation. Stock +9.88%.
Signal 2: Disciplined Distribution (Nov 10-24) Both groups selling, yet price held $340-365. Hidden demand absorbing supply = exhausted sellers.
Signal 3: Forced Repositioning (Nov 24) Gemini 3 success validates Broadcom's ASIC strategy. No sellers left. Market forced to chase. +11.1%.
The pattern: Early positioning → distribution → catalyst → breakout.
Why it matters: When $180M of distribution gets absorbed without collapse, the market was underweight. Add a catalyst → explosive move.
What Makes LSEG Equity Flow Data Different
Granularity: Minute-level intervals reveal how much ($180M distribution) and when it completes (cumulative flows at baseline).
Segmentation: Separate institutional from retail. For Broadcom, this showed both groups distributing simultaneously—a unique structural setup.
Breadth: All US equities, all venues. From $5T Nvidia to $1.5T Broadcom.
Real-Time: Nov 24 pre-market showed both groups at multi-week lows as catalyst arrived. The breakout timing was predictable.
The Bigger Picture
While Burry warned about AI bubble, institutions rotated to better risk/reward within AI.
The insight: Burry might be right about some AI stocks. Smart money rotated within AI to better risk/reward—Broadcom at 30x vs Nvidia at 44x.
Two Ways Forward
Option 1: Keep trading on headlines. Buy after moves. Sell after drops. Miss Broadcom (+11%), catch Nvidia (+0.53%).
Option 2: Use real-time flow data. Measure $180M distribution completing. Watch cumulative flows revert to baseline. Position before catalyst arrives.
The Broadcom move was predictable:
✅ Daily data: Both groups distributing
✅ Intraday data: $180M magnitude quantified
✅ Cumulative flows: Baseline = completion visible
✅ Price stability: Demand absorbing supply
✅ Result: No sellers left → +11.1%
The trade: "Measure when $180M distribution completes → position before catalyst."
Daily data = what. Intraday data = how much + when.
Stop Reacting. Start Anticipating.
With real-time flow intelligence, you don't guess—you measure. LSEG Equity Flow data, Powered by Exponential Technology, shows exactly what informed money is doing.
Want to see how this works?
📧 Email: sales@exponential-tech.ai
📅 Book a Demo: See institutional flows in real-time
🔗 Read More: How Flow Data Revealed Nvidia's True Story
About LSEG Equity Flow Data, Powered by Exponential Technology
Based on the US Consolidated Feed, this dataset applies deep high-frequency trading knowledge to identify the direction of active risk-taking by institutional buy-side, market makers, and retail traders. With unprecedented 1-minute granularity and 17 years of history, it offers analysts the unique ability to distinguish institutional and retail flow—providing near-real-time market intelligence across the entire US equity market.
