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Exponential Technology (XTech) November 2025 CPI Forecast:
Headline CPI: +0.33% MoM | 2.9% YoY
Core CPI: +0.23% MoM | 2.9% YoY
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release November CPI data on December 18, 2025—but this won't be an ordinary report. For the first time in modern CPI reporting history, the BLS has announced it will not include month-over-month percentage changes for November 2025 in categories where October data is missing.
The reason? A historic 43-day government shutdown that permanently erased a critical month of inflation data from the economic record.
As markets and policymakers navigate this unprecedented data vacuum, Exponential Technology's November forecast provides crucial insight into where inflation is headed—and why understanding the context behind the numbers matters more than ever.
The Numbers: Gas Prices Drive Headline Inflation Higher
Our forecast shows headline CPI rising 0.33% month-over-month in November, driven primarily by a sharp increase in gasoline prices. Energy costs climbed more than 3% from October to November, reflecting both seasonal patterns and supply dynamics that pushed prices higher at the pump.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, tells a more moderate story at +0.23% MoM. This suggests underlying inflation pressures remain elevated but contained, with year-over-year readings for both headline and core converging at 2.9%—still notably above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
The Hidden Story: Seasonal Adjustments vs. Reality
Here's what makes this forecast particularly interesting: the 0.33% headline increase is largely a function of seasonal adjustments applied by the BLS. Strip away those statistical corrections, and inflation was essentially flat month-over-month in November.
This isn't a criticism of BLS methodology—seasonal adjustments serve an important purpose in identifying underlying trends. But it highlights a crucial point for investors and analysts: the "inflation" you see in the headline isn't always the inflation consumers experience in real time.
Understanding this distinction becomes even more critical when the data infrastructure itself is compromised.
The Data Crisis: What Happened to October
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history—stretching from October 1 to November 12, 2025—forced all but one of BLS's 2,055 employees into furlough. The result was catastrophic for data collection.
Former BLS Commissioner William Beach explained the problem simply: "Approximately two-thirds of the CPI data is dependent on people collecting data from stores. The other portion comes from third parties... but you can't build a full index just on partial data."
Unlike digital records that can be retrieved retroactively, price data from October is simply gone. As UC Berkeley economist Jesse Rothstein put it: "Unfortunately, there's not really a way to make up for data that wasn't collected in October. You can't really go to a store and look at the shelf and figure out what the price would have been a month ago."
The November CPI report, delayed from its original December 10 release to December 18, will be the first in modern history to acknowledge data gaps with asterisks and missing month-over-month changes.
This isn't just a statistical inconvenience—it's a fundamental break in the economic time series that policymakers and markets rely on.
The Fed's Dilemma: Deciding in the Dark
The timing of this data crisis couldn't be worse. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on December 9-10 will conclude before the November CPI report is even released.
The Fed will make its rate decision without October data and without knowing November's inflation numbers.
As Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi described it: "It's been like flying in fog without any instrumentation."
Yet markets are pricing in an 83-88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting, which would bring the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%. This confidence persists despite—or perhaps because of—the data vacuum.
The Fed itself is navigating this unprecedented situation by cobbling together alternative data sources. Chairman Jerome Powell has been clear about the approach: "This is a temporary state of affairs. We're going to do our jobs, we're going to collect every scrap of data we can find, evaluate it, and think carefully about it."
Those "scraps" include private sector surveys, daily energy prices, business inflation expectation surveys, and nowcasting models from various Federal Reserve banks.
But none of these fully replace the comprehensive CPI report that has anchored monetary policy for decades.
The Debate Within the Fed
Even with complete data, this would be a contentious FOMC meeting. Fed officials are genuinely divided on the appropriate path forward.
The case for cutting: New York Fed President John Williams has signaled openness to a December cut, noting "I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term... to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral." San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed this sentiment, arguing the Fed shouldn't "delay cuts out of fear of reversing later."
The case for pausing: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic sees persistent inflation pressures, stating he sees "little to suggest that price pressures will dissipate before mid- to late 2026." St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warns of "limited room for further reductions without monetary policy becoming overly accommodative."
Chairman Powell himself has been notably cautious, emphasizing that "a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it."
What This Means for Markets and Investors
The confluence of incomplete data, divided Fed guidance, and elevated inflation readings creates unusual uncertainty. Our 2.9% year-over-year forecast for both headline and core CPI suggests inflation remains stubbornly above target, even as the Fed contemplates continued rate cuts.
Goldman Sachs expects a December cut followed by two additional 25 bps reductions in March and June 2026, reaching a terminal rate of 3.00-3.25%. But as Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel noted, "This is the most uncertain FOMC meeting in years because the committee itself doesn't yet know the answer."
For investors, this environment demands close attention to alternative data sources and forecasting models that don't rely solely on official government statistics. The gas price surge we're forecasting for November, for instance, shows up in real-time energy data even when BLS data collection falters.
The Bigger Picture: When Infrastructure Fails
The October data crisis exposed a deeper vulnerability in America's economic statistics infrastructure.
The BLS entered the shutdown having already lost nearly 25% of its staff since February 2025, with one-third of leadership positions vacant. The combination of understaffing and the longest shutdown in history created what former BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen called a perfect storm: "BLS has fewer resources this time because it is down 20% in staffing."
RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas expects the ripple effects to last months: "It'll likely be the February period, where we get the January data, before we get our first real clean look at the US macroeconomic data."
This isn't just about one missing month. It's about the erosion of the data foundation that markets, businesses, and policymakers depend on for critical decisions.
When government statistics fail, the value of alternative data sources and sophisticated forecasting models becomes paramount.
Why This Forecast Matters
At Exponential Technology, we've built our forecasting capability precisely for moments like this.
Our approach combines machine learning with bottom-up, real-time data streams that don't depend on government data collection schedules. When BLS furloughs leave traditional data collection paralyzed, our models continue processing signals from energy markets, employment trends, and other alternative data sources.
Our November forecast of +0.33% headline and +0.23% core MoM isn't just a prediction—it's a benchmark against which to measure both the eventual BLS release and the Fed's policy decisions made in the interim. The gas price surge we're flagging provides actionable intelligence weeks before official confirmation, giving our clients time to position ahead of market reactions.
Your Portfolio Shouldn't Depend on Single Data Sources
The current situation exposes a fundamental challenge in how most investors approach macro data: they're entirely dependent on agencies whose operations can be interrupted.
XTech Research's machine learning models and alternative data approach provide independence from this systemic vulnerability. Our proprietary methodology combines:
Alternative data streams that update continuously, not monthly
Machine learning algorithms refined through 25 years of institutional investing
Predictive signals across equities, options, futures, and macro indicators
Proven accuracy that consistently beats consensus estimates
Whether the BLS releases data on schedule, with delay, or experiences operational interruption—our clients receive:
Early intelligence: CPI projections 3+ weeks before scheduled releases
Operational independence: Forecasts that don't depend on single agency operations
Real-time updates: Continuous refinement as new alternative data emerges
Track record: Demonstrated accuracy in predicting official numbers
Comprehensive coverage: Macro forecasts beyond just CPI
This is what economic forecasting looks like when you can't take the data infrastructure for granted.
Looking Ahead
The December 18 CPI release will be unlike any we've seen before—incomplete, asterisked, and released after the Fed has already made its decision. The November data will be critical, but it will arrive in the context of unprecedented uncertainty about both current conditions and recent history.
Our forecast suggests inflation remains elevated but contained, with energy price volatility driving headline numbers while core measures show more stability. Whether the Fed cuts rates in December—and by how much—will reveal whether policymakers believe they can afford to ease into this uncertainty or whether the data gaps demand caution.
Either way, the November CPI report will mark a turning point: the moment when America's economic data infrastructure showed its cracks, and when alternative forecasting approaches moved from nice-to-have to essential.
Other CPI Categories Forecast we track
Aside from the CPI Gasoline Forecast, we track:
CPI Transportation Services
CPI Used Cars and Trucks
CPI Food
CPI Shelter
CPI Medical
CPI Education
CPI Recreation
CPI Electricity
CPI Apparel
CPI Utility
Want to stay ahead of the official data releases? XTech's proprietary forecasting models provide inflation predictions weeks before BLS reports, giving you the edge you need in uncertain times. Schedule a consultation to learn how alternative data can enhance your investment process.
